Why Does NJSpotlight News Ignore Outflow of People and Wealth to Other States? It Was 6th-Worst in the Nation in 2025.

Why the enormous blind spot in NJSpotlight News’s article about New Jersey’s slowing population growth from mid-2024 to mid-2025. It rightly notes that, due to a drop in international immigration from 121,000 to 53,000, New Jersey’s population only grew 0.4%. If the trend continues, New Jersey could actually lose population, which could have broader repercussions:

Population changes can have wide-ranging ramifications, including the ability to fill jobs and fund local services and schools.

But, strangely, the article only focuses on two variables in the population equation: the natural birth/death rate and international immigration. Along these lines, the article quotes Rutgers Professor James Hughes as blaming the Trump administration’s policies for the drop in international immigration and adding:

New Jersey and other states have relied on immigration as a source of population growth due to the decline in fertility rates and the number of births …

Why ignore domestic migration? But as Sunlight’s readers know, this completely ignores the elephant in the room: domestic migration. Like other high tax/cost-of-living blue states, New Jersey has seen a large and consistent net outmigration of people and wealth, with lower-tax/cost-of-living red states as the beneficiaries.

As it happens, a recent study* of domestic migration in 2025 captures this reality very well. The map below shows net domestic migration per 10,000 people. See a pattern?

Here are the top three gainers:

1. South Carolina: 79.7 people gained
2. Idaho: 63.2
3. Delaware: 54.5
4. Tennessee: 43.6
5. Alabama: 36.6

And the bottom six losers (we expanded to observe New Jersey’s placement):

1. Massachusetts: -37.9 people lost
2. New York: -28.2
3. Maryland -27.4
4. California: -25.1
5. Kansas: -19.7
6. New Jersey: -17.6

Domestic migration is a more meaningful barometer. This is the real story behind the population numbers. The consistent outflow of domestic migrants is the main negative driver of New Jersey’s population growth. Net domestic migration flows are also the most revealing of a state’s relative standing. As has been true throughout history, international immigrants want to come to America. Life in America has long been more appealing than life many other countries. But the domestic flows show where Americans are choosing to move. Of course, there are many reasons why people move but the data indicates that high taxes and costs of living matter a lot. Hence the blue-to-red dynamic. And remember that international immigrants tend to have only 2/3 of the income of domestic out-migrants (many of whom are retirees), so these blue states are losing wealth to red states, too.

The real crux of the matter: congressional seats. Here’s the real crux of the matter. The NJSpotlight News article observes:

Population totals dictate each state’s number of seats in the House of Representatives. Because of small population gains, New Jersey is not expected to lose a representative in the next congressional reapportionment.

And Democratic Party political power. There’s a reason that the blue states that are losing domestic migrants also have the most friendly policies for international immigrants (including illegal ones). Sanctuary cities, generous social welfare benefits, and anti-immigration-enforcement policies encourage international immigration of all types and the US Census Bureau counts all of them. Without copious international immigration, these blue states would see population declines and lose seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College. In other words, the Democratic Party would lose political power. That”s the bottom line.

*by Visual Capitalist using data from HireAHelper.