NJ Population Growth Is Not “Soaring:” It’s Below the National Average. And It’s Entirely Dependent on International Immigration

There’s been some confusion about the recent US Census Bureau 2025 update. Publications like NJ.com describe New Jersey’s population as “soaring.” Meanwhile, domestic migration studies like United Van Lines (UVL) and U-Haul show New Jersey with among the very worst outmigration problems in the country. Which is it?

New Jersey’s population is not “soaring:” its growth is below the national average. First, New Jersey’s population is not “soaring.” Yes, according to the Census Bureau, from 2024 to 2025, it did increase by 41,961, which was the 10th highest absolute increase among the states (Florida was first with 391,243). But New Jersey is a large state with 9.5 million residents, so that made for a 0.4% increase, which tied for 25th. That’s not “soaring,” that’s middle-of-the-pack and lower than the national average of 0.5%. For the record, South Carolina was the top growth state with 1.5%, and even very large Texas (31.7 million) grew by 1.2% — three times New Jersey’s growth.

Net domestic out-migration. Second, UVL and U-Haul were right: New Jersey continues to lose large numbers of citizens to other states: -37,428, the 4th-worst absolute amount after California, New York, and Illinois. Here are the numbers for 2025-25:

• Total population change: +41,961
• Natural change (births/deaths): +26,023
• International immigration: +53,064
• Domestic migration: -37,428
• 0.4% population growth vs. 0.5% national average

For the record, the same was true for the period 2020-25:

• Total population change: +259,191
• Natural change (births/deaths): +101,219
• International immigration: +379,828
• Domestic migration: -222,194
• 2.8% population growth vs. 3.1% national average

New Jersey population growth entirely due to international immigration. The bottom line that New Jersey’s population growth in 2024-25 was entirely due to international immigration. Without it, New Jersey would have lost -11,103 citizens. The same was true for 2020-25: without international immigration, New Jersey’s population would have shrunk by -120,637. As Rutgers Professor James Hughes noted to the Asbury Park Press about last year’s similar numbers: “With declining births, with net domestic migration losses, immigration is really the only source of population growth in New Jersey [emphasis added].” Sunlight is not debating the merits of international immigration, we are simply providing the facts.

Apparently, modern, lazy journalism doesn’t require analysis and settles for (misleading) headlines.